Conviction-based model portfolio

Tracking the world's
best investors

Updated 2026-03-17 SEC EDGAR 13F Data
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Positions
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Top Score
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Sectors
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Regions
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Stocks held
Stocks held Total positions in the model portfolio. The model holds between 5 and 10 stocks, selected by conviction score.
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Top score
Top conviction score Highest conviction score among current holdings. Calculated from investor count, position size, and recent buying activity.
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Avg score
Average conviction score Mean conviction score across all positions. Higher average = stronger collective backing.
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Sectors
Sectors represented Distinct industries in the portfolio. Max 3 stocks per sector to prevent over-concentration.
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Regions
Geographic regions Distinct world regions represented, sourced from SEC EDGAR 13F filings.
Full backtest · Q1 2022 → Q4 2025 · 16 quarters

Beat the S&P 500

The model outperformed the S&P 500 in 12 out of 16 quarters, generating +17.5% cumulative alpha based on conviction signals from public SEC filings.
Run your own backtest
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Model
vs
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S&P 500
Model vs S&P 500 — Full Backtest
Q1 2022 → Q4 2025 · 16 quarters · 1-quarter hold
+73.2%
Model return
+55.7%
S&P 500 return
75%
Win rate
+17.5%
Total alpha
Quarter Model S&P 500 Alpha Winner
⚠ Disclaimer: This backtest has look-ahead bias. 13F filings are published 45–135 days after quarter-end. Past performance does not predict future results. This is not financial advice.
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Top Convictions

Highest-scoring positions by institutional consensus
#1
16 tracked investors
689
$211.74 -9.1% today
Technology +6.1% 1M
#2
13 tracked investors
460
$305.56 -8.2% today
Technology -1.0% 1M
#3
13 tracked investors
435
$399.95 -3.4% today
Technology -0.2% 1M
#4
7 tracked investors
371
$95.20 +18.8% today
Communications +25.5% 1M
#5
7 tracked investors
337
$146.49 -17.7% today
Healthcare +15.6% 1M
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All Holdings

Complete portfolio ranked by conviction score
Prices: 7h ago
# Company Price Region Sector Score Trend Insider Investors Filing date
1 AMAZON COM INC $211.74 -9.1% USA Technology
689
▼ Bearish 16 tracked 2025-12-31
2 ALPHABET INC $305.56 -8.2% USA Technology
460
▼ Bearish 13 tracked 2025-12-31
3 MICROSOFT CORP $399.95 -3.4% USA Technology
435
▲ Bullish 13 tracked 2025-12-31
4 NETFLIX INC $95.20 +18.8% USA Communications
371
▼ Bearish 7 tracked 2025-12-31
5 MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC $146.49 -17.7% USA Healthcare
337
— Neutral 7 tracked 2025-12-31
6 SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A $524.00 +18.9% Europe Sweden Communications
325
— Neutral 9 tracked 2025-12-31
7 RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC $74.57 +7.6% Americas Canada Consumer
321
▼ Bearish 7 tracked 2025-12-31
8 UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC $285.49 +3.5% USA Healthcare
319
— Neutral 9 tracked 2025-12-31
9 UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC $74.66 +1.0% USA Consumer
291
▲ Bullish 8 tracked 2025-12-31
10 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO $298.20 -15.7% USA Financials
285
▼ Bearish 7 tracked 2025-12-31
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Analytics

Portfolio composition and conviction distribution
Conviction scores
Geographic exposure
Sector breakdown

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About This Model

How Bogen Capital works and what it is not

How it works

This model tracks the public 13F filings of 22 of the world's most respected institutional investors — from Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman to Ray Dalio and Carl Icahn. Every quarter, large fund managers must disclose their US equity holdings to the SEC.

Each stock is given a conviction score based on three signals: how many tracked investors hold it (breadth), how large their position is (conviction size), and whether they have been buying or selling recently (momentum).

What it is not

  • Not a licensed investment product or financial service
  • Not real-time — 13F filings are disclosed up to 135 days after quarter-end
  • Not a guarantee of any future return or outcome
  • Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security
  • Not accounting for taxes, fees, liquidity, or individual circumstances

This is a personal research tool that aggregates publicly available data.

Data sources

All data is sourced directly from the SEC's free public EDGAR database. No third-party data vendors. Filings are cached locally for 7 days.

The scoring algorithm is fully deterministic — no machine learning or AI is involved. Every score traces back to specific investor filings.

⚠ Legal disclaimer

This website is provided strictly for informational and educational purposes. Nothing here constitutes financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Past model performance does not predict future results. Adrian Bogen accepts no liability for any investment decisions made based on this model.

Created by Adrian Bogen  ·  Personal research only
⚠ Disclaimer: Bogen Capital is an informational model only. Adrian Bogen is not a licensed financial advisor. Data from public SEC EDGAR 13F filings, delayed up to 135 days. Not financial advice.
Return: High: Low: