Conviction-based model portfolio

Tracking the world's
best investors

A recommended stock portfolio based on what top investors are buying. Tracking 42 of the top investors across 3 strategies - free and regularly updated.
Updated 2026-04-14 SEC EDGAR 13F Data
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Positions
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Top Score
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Sectors
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Regions
Full backtest · Q1 2022 → Q4 2025 · 16 quarters

Beat the S&P 500

The model outperformed the S&P 500 in 12 out of 16 quarters, generating +17.5% cumulative alpha based on conviction signals from public SEC filings.
Run your own backtest
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Model
vs
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S&P 500
Model vs S&P 500 — Full Backtest
Q1 2022 → Q4 2025 · 16 quarters · 1-quarter hold
+73.2%
Model return
+55.7%
S&P 500 return
75%
Win rate
+17.5%
Total alpha
Quarter Model S&P 500 Alpha Winner
⚠ Disclaimer: This backtest has look-ahead bias. 13F filings are published 45–135 days after quarter-end. Past performance does not predict future results. This is not financial advice.
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Stocks held
Stocks held Total positions in the model portfolio. The model holds between 5 and 10 stocks, selected by conviction score.
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Top score
Top conviction score Highest conviction score among current holdings. Calculated from investor count, position size, and recent buying activity.
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Avg score
Average conviction score Mean conviction score across all positions. Higher average = stronger collective backing.
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Sectors
Sectors represented Distinct industries in the portfolio. Max 3 stocks per sector to prevent over-concentration.
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Regions
Geographic regions Distinct world regions represented, sourced from SEC EDGAR 13F filings.
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Investor Type

Filter the portfolio by investment philosophy — each type draws from a different pool of tracked funds.
All Investors
Combined conviction signals from all tracked investors across every strategy.
42 investors total
Steady Compounders
Long-term value investors with decades of proven track records. Patient, buy-and-hold, quality-focused.
11 investors
Innovation Edge
Tech and growth-focused investors targeting innovation, AI, software, and disruptive companies.
13 investors
Bold Strategists
Macro, activist, and contrarian investors making bold, concentrated bets on market dislocations.
18 investors
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Current Holdings

Stocks ranked by conviction score — a weighted combination of how many top investors hold it, how large their positions are, and whether they're actively buying. Insider trading data modifies each score by up to ±15%. Learn how the model works →
Prices: 1h ago
# Company Price Region Sector Score Trend Insider Investors Filing date
1 AMAZON COM INC $238.38 +14.2% USA Technology
1147
→ ▼ Bearish 26 tracked 2026-03-31
2 ALPHABET INC $317.24 +4.5% USA Technology
915
→ ▼ Bearish 23 tracked 2026-03-31
3 MICROSOFT CORP $370.87 -8.2% USA Technology
702
→ ▲ Bullish 20 tracked 2026-03-31
4 NETFLIX INC $103.01 +5.4% USA Communications
589
→ ▼ Bearish 11 tracked 2025-12-31
5 UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC $304.33 +5.2% USA Healthcare
570
→ — Neutral 15 tracked 2025-12-31
6 SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY S A $475.99 -8.5% Europe Sweden Communications
552
→ ▼ Bearish 14 tracked 2025-12-31
7 MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC $145.88 +0.7% USA Healthcare
474
→ — Neutral 10 tracked 2025-12-31
8 RESTAURANT BRANDS INTL INC $76.39 +5.9% Americas Canada Consumer
439
→ ▼ Bearish 10 tracked 2025-12-31
9 UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC $70.48 -7.7% USA Consumer
427
→ ▲ Bullish 12 tracked 2025-12-31
10 AMERICAN EXPRESS CO $313.50 +1.9% USA Financials
381
→ ▼ Bearish 11 tracked 2026-03-31
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Analytics

Portfolio composition and conviction distribution
Conviction scores
Geographic exposure
Sector breakdown

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★

Market Trader

$1,000 to start — buy low, sell high, don't go bust.
Market Trader
$1,000 to start. 20 seconds on the clock.
BUY goes all-in. SELL cashes out.
Make as much as you can before time's up.
BCAP
Balance $1,000
$100.00 —
Timer starts on BUY BUY to start
Cash
$1,000
Shares
—
Net Worth
$1,000
Leaderboard — beat the legends

⚠ Fictional trading game for entertainment only — not real stock prices, not financial advice.

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About This Model

How Bogen Capital works and what it is not

How it works

This model tracks the public 13F filings of 22 of the world's most respected institutional investors — from Warren Buffett and Seth Klarman to Ray Dalio and Carl Icahn. Every quarter, large fund managers must disclose their US equity holdings to the SEC.

Each stock is given a conviction score based on three signals: how many tracked investors hold it (breadth), how large their position is (conviction size), and whether they have been buying or selling recently (momentum).

What it is not

  • Not a licensed investment product or financial service
  • Not real-time — 13F filings are disclosed up to 135 days after quarter-end
  • Not a guarantee of any future return or outcome
  • Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security
  • Not accounting for taxes, fees, liquidity, or individual circumstances

All data is aggregated from publicly available SEC filings.

Data sources

All data is sourced directly from the SEC's free public EDGAR database. No third-party data vendors. Filings are cached locally for 7 days.

The scoring algorithm is fully deterministic — no machine learning or AI is involved. Every score traces back to specific investor filings.

⚠ Legal disclaimer

This website is provided strictly for informational and educational purposes. Nothing here constitutes financial advice or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Past model performance does not predict future results. Adrian Bogen accepts no liability for any investment decisions made based on this model.

⚠ Disclaimer: Bogen Capital is an informational model only. Adrian Bogen is not a licensed financial advisor. Data from public SEC EDGAR 13F filings, delayed up to 135 days. Not financial advice.
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